INTRODUCTION
There are many
countries in this world and each of them fall into a specific category of
states such as, least developed states, developing states, new industrialized
states, and developed states. The abovementioned categories are trying to classify
every states based on the level of the development. Apart from these
categories, states also can be labeled as superpower states or less powerful
states. However, along these two extreme groups, there also exist a group name
pivotal states.
A select group of
developing countries, whose future were poised at critical turning points and
whose fates would significantly affect regional and even international
stability can be classified in the group of pivotal states. Among the countries
that can be regard as the pivotal states are Indonesia, Turkey, India,
Pakistan, Algeria, Mexico, Brazil, Egypt, South Africa and Iran. These
countries are poised between potential success and possible failure which the
outcome is uncertain. They also can influence their neighbor through extensive
economic and/or political linkages.
Basically, the conflict
between superpower and pivotal states exist when the opinion/interest of the
superpower states do not congruent with the pivotal states interest.
Fundamentally, the group of superpower state is a collective state which is
more influential, powerful, their presence is beyond the physical location and
they are the main actor. The superpower states generally have the world’s
strongest military forces and the strongest economies to pay for military
forces. They also advance in knowledge and technology which can become their
national resources since through these things they can innovate and
consequently make other to depend on them, and to name few innovations such as
computer, internet and so on. Among the countries that fall into this group are
United States, China, Japan, Germany, France, Britain, and Russia. The great
powers thus include the five permanent members of UN Security Council- United
States, China, Russia, France and Britain also among the countries that
possessing large nuclear weapon arsenals.
Whereas the less
powerful states play a role as side actors that do not play important role,
yet, their presence in some extent can cause stability in international system.
These less powerful states also being used as a proxy by superpower states to
achieve their interest and given the nature that they are easily manipulated
lead them to be dependent on superpower. Unlike the pivotal states which their
nature are not easily manipulated and sometimes have different Thus, given the condition that pivotal states
may affect foreign policy of the superpower, anything related to the pivotal
states will be taken into consideration. For this purpose, we will use the
example of Iran and United States relationship and discussing on the recent
controversial issue regarding the nuclear program by Iran.
Hence, before
discussion in depth on the relationship of the US and Iran, we will take a look
on the country profile for both countries[1].
Basically, for the United States given the area of 9, 161, 920 km², the population is around 296.41
million and the per capita GDP of 11, 046.40 dollar (2000 base year). United
States consists of multiculture, multiraces, multi-religion society and a lot
of immigrants. Thus, the society might be complicated to be explained, yet, theoretically
harmonious in such a way of promoting freedom, human rights and democracy.
While Iran, given the area of 1, 636, 200 km², the population is around 68.25
million and per capita GDP is 132.60 dollar (2000 base year). Iran is an
Islamic country, which have two level of political systems – Guardian Council
(religious scholar) and The Majlis or Parliament (democratically elected). Even
though Iran is Islamic country, yet it differs from other Muslims country since
the majority of Iranians belong to the Shi’ah Sect. compared to others Muslim
countries which majority is belong to Sunni Sect.
In this case, there are two major actors involved that is
States and Non- States actors which we will try to indentify how many players
involved in the relationship of US- Iran. Apart from United States, and Iran,
among others states involved are Iraq, Israel and China. Furthermore, the
non-state actors which include the United Nation, International Atomic Energy
Agency, domestic non- governmental organization that may oppose the nuclear
program.
THE
DILEMMA
The US relationship with Iran is an absolutely classical
example of the clash between superpower and pivotal state. Historically, during
the Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, the US relationship with Iran was a congruent
interest, even though US might be interested on the natural resources in Iran,
and Iran was interested in becoming a developed nation. At that period, the
relationship between Israel and Iran was in such a cooperative relationship
compared to today.
The Iran administration wanted to become a developed nation
has cost the social disorder in its society since the westernization started to
take place where middle class people starting to consume alcoholic, dressing
like American and thus triggered the dissatisfaction of the society which are
conservative in nature. Thus, that situation has led to Iran Revolution which
took place in 1979 as a result the Shah’s regime was overthrown.
Thus, the behavior of Iran which previously much friendlier
with the US has changed into the opposite direction which it caused as problem
to the United States and the influence of Iran is significant in the Persian
Gulf region make it is difficult to be dealt with. Thus, dealing with Iran has
become among the foreign policy consideration taken into account by United
States administration.
However, Iran might facing a dilemma whether it can be among
the superpower without a huge cost to the Iranian and also international
community through nuclear program which might resulted to a World War III.
Furthermore, Iran announce to carried out the nuclear program which resulted in
the dilemma of perception from other international community as whole, particularly
United States and Israel.
Aforesaid, pivotal state posses two outcome that either
becoming a superpower or stay as the middle power as it is currently. There are
possibilities that Iran might turn into the superpower state given its strong
export in oil to the superpower states such as China, and Russia. This indirectly
shows that these states dependent on the oil/energy from Iran. Basically, this
situation implicitly explains the importance of Iran presence and influences in
the international trade. Moreover, most of the Iranians are knowledgeable in
sciences and technology which partially can be assumed as a contribution of
Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi that sent Iranians to study in sciences abroad.
Frankly speaking, the human capital in Iran is competitive, innovative and
educated which in return will able to help Iran in becoming superpower state.
Evidently, the creation of the Fajr-5 is using an Iran know how technology
which a military weapon that accurately hit its target.
Besides, the aggressiveness or actively participation of the
current president of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in international arena will
eventually increase its popularity and support from the minority such as from
the less powerful states or states around the Gulf region. Ahmadinejad vision
to see every nation is equally treated might accumulated the interest of those
who are have been mistreated by the superpower. Given the news regarding
Ahmadinejad, it can be assumed that he is an idealist and at the same time a
realist, where he is looking to have a new world system and at the same time
pursuing the nuclear program since nuclear program as a precautious measure.
Another advantage for Iran is the done by United States in
occupying Iraq, has increase Iran’s influence in Iraq, where it is claimed that
Iran has been helping Iraq through the supply of military weapon.
In becoming a superpower state, Iran faces challenges from
United States and Israel. Commonly known that United States has been acted as a
“big brother” in the international system which we can refer as a hegemonic
element. The United States has perceived Iran as a threat to its influence and
tends to disregard of Iran effort to discuss on the conflict as has been portrayed
during Bush’s administration where the door for discussion has been seal off.
Additionally, Iran also received a threat from Israel Prime
Minister that said, Israel will pull the triggered if Iran still pursuing the
nuclear program and there was a cyber attack on Iran nuclear facility in order
to halt the nuclear program. In addition, due to the nuclear program carried by
Iran has resulted for sanctions from various aspects by United Nation through
the claim made by European Union and United States on Iran’s nuclear program.
Iran has been imposed with four round of sanctions in the
period of 2006 until 2010, among all included a ban on the supply of heavy
weaponry and nuclear-related technology to Iran, a block on Iranians arms exports,
and asset freeze on key individuals and companies.
On 1 July 2012, an EU ban on the import, purchase and
transport of Iranian crude oil came into force. The 27 member states had until
then accounted for about 20% of Iran's oil exports. European companies were
also stopped from insuring Iranian oil shipments, having previously
underwritten 90% of them. The sanctions were phased in after being announced on
23 January, when the EU also froze assets belonging to the Central Bank of
Iran, and banned all trade in gold and other precious metals with the bank and
other public bodies.
In October 2012, the EU announced a new package of sanctions
against Iran. The measures prohibit any transactions with Iranian banks and
financial institutions unless specifically authorised or exempted, such as for
humanitarian purposes. The import, purchase and transport of natural gas from
Iran were also banned, as was the construction of oil tankers for Iran and the
flagging and classification of Iranian oil tankers and cargo vessels.[2]
THE
NUCLEAR ISSUE
The popularity on nuclear program was prominence during the
regime of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, where Iran signed contract with France,
West Germany, United States where Iran should received five reactors, two
reactors and six reactors respectively. There was a bilateral nuclear
cooperation agreement were signed with Belgium, Canada, France, Italy, United
States and West Germany. However, the nuclear program was suspended during the
Iran Revolution and after that it has been continued under new government.
The continuation of nuclear program under the new flagship
has rouse the concern of the superpower state which represented by United
States by having a perception that Iran might
use nuclear power to create nuclear weapon and eventually lead to a war with
the Israel, which is United States’ ally. On the other hand, Iran government
has been consistently convinced that the nuclear program is meant for peaceful
purposes such as to generate electricity, for use in agriculture sector, and
also in medical field as proxy to fight cancer.
There are several reasons apart from the peaceful purposes
that can explained why Iran insisting in having nuclear power such as a
demonstration of Iran’s place a prominence in the world, a matter of prestige.
It also due to the motivation as a precaution action that United States will
think twice in attacking Iran if they possesses nuclear reactor. Last but not
least, it might due to the anti-Semitic view of the Iran towards Israel, that
Israel possesses threat in the future, which is likely true indeed given the
historical and current action of Israel towards Palestinian.
The nuclear issue mostly has been centered on one negative
argument that Iran want to develop nuclear weapon by the United States and
Israel instead of argue about the expertise and the ability of Iran to govern
the nuclear reactor and radioactive waste from bring the deadweight loss to the
society and environment as previous incident in Three- Mile Island, Chernobyl
and recently in Fukushima, Japan.
Based on depicted situation, it is clearly shows that United
States and Israel opposed Iran’s nuclear program because the balance of power
will be redistributed and resulted them to lose the hegemonic element in
international system. Furthermore, the economic situation in the United States
is keep worsening with the unsolved sub-prime crisis which creates a lot of
domestic problem as well as external problem. Basically, United States is
pursuing its own interest instead of maintaining the stability of the
international system and achieving peace through diplomatic way.
THE
FUTURE OF IRAN
Will Iran able to emerge as a country that stands among the
superpower states or become the ally of the superpower states lies on who are
the next Supreme Leader and President after the end of the Ahmadinejad
presidential term in 2013. There are three important players in domestic
politics that will influence the future of Iran and maintain the stability of
political arena, that is, Supreme Leader, President and Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps (IRGC). These players responsible in shaping the domestic political
stage and any changes in the interest of these parties will only have a slight
impact on the domestic stability.
Politically, Iran’s government does not encounter many
problems since there are no issues that can trigger the dissatisfaction of the
society. However, Iran’s government encountered with the economic problems due
to various sanctions imposed by United Nations and unilateral sanctions by
United States and Britain. Consequently, it has halted the economy of Iran
which making trading with Iran become costly and difficult. This situation also
affected the income of the Iranians, yet, it does not lead to any demonstration
for the time being.
In regards to the sanctions, China and other countries
opposed the sanctions and claimed that the sanctions as a unilateral sanctions.
Additionally, China and Russia as two permanent members of United Nation
Security Council is the major trading partner with Iran, the expectation that
the sanctions can be revoked is highly possible.
Thus, if the nuclear program operating smoothly and the
sanctions on Iran have been revoked, there will be a bright future of Iran in
the international arena and the Palestine – Israel conflict can be improved in
establishing peace.
CONCLUSION
Iran as a pivotal state has threatened the balance of power
among the superpower states in the international system by declaring its
intention pursuing a nuclear program which meant for peaceful purposes. The
nuclear program can bring benefit by generating electricity, use in agriculture
and medical field has been perceived negatively by the United States and Israel
as a meant to pursue nuclear weapon and affect the international stability.
If the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) authorized
Iran’s nuclear program, the future of Iran to standing among the superpower
states in the international arena is likely possible. Apart from that, Iran
also possesses high human capital, advancement in knowledge and technology
which eventually motivate Iran to seek the acknowledgement of its status and
influences.
[1] Developing Countries In International Trade 2007 : Trade And
Developmet Index
[2] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15983302
there other reading materials and i will cited it next time... basically, this was my asignment and i think extra work should be put on it. it is incomplete and i am not satisfied basicaly.
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